Monday, September 26, 2011

The Money Chase

2012 Presidential Candidate Fundraising Summary


The first 2012 presidential primaries and caucuses may still be months away, but potential contenders are already criss-crossing the country in bids to boost their political profiles and raise money. Most major-party presidential candidates filed campaign finance reports with the Federal Election Commission on July 15, 2011—reports that campaigns will continue to file quarterly this year and monthly beginning in 2012.. Here OpenSecrets.org highlights how the candidates are stacking up in the money chase, as they build massive political war chests to get their messages out to voters.
Select the candidate's photo or name to view the complete money profile.
TOGGLE: Ordered | Sortable
Barack Obama (D)
Raised$48,662,185
Spent$80,235,455
Debts$412,878
Cash on Hand$37,110,346
 See Bundlers
End DateJune 30, 2011
Mitt Romney (R)
Raised$18,284,223
Spent$5,575,690
Debts$0
Cash on Hand$12,715,495
End DateJune 30, 2011
Ron Paul (R)
Raised$4,514,166
Spent$1,547,989
Debts$0
Cash on Hand$2,966,177
End DateJune 30, 2011
Tim Pawlenty (R)
Raised$4,473,673
Spent$2,472,583
Debts$1,915
Cash on Hand$2,001,090
End DateJune 30, 2011
Michele Bachmann (R)
Raised$3,636,523
Spent$257,456
Debts$364,120
Cash on Hand$3,379,067
End DateJune 30, 2011
Herman Cain (R)
Raised$2,552,835
Spent$2,070,941
Debts$0
Cash on Hand$0
End DateJune 30, 2011
Newt Gingrich (R)
Raised$2,094,866
Spent$1,772,644
Debts$1,030,628
Cash on Hand$322,222
End DateJune 30, 2011
Rick Santorum (R)
Raised$582,098
Spent$352,983
Debts$0
Cash on Hand$229,115
End DateJune 30, 2011
Fred Karger (R)
Raised$266,511
Spent$264,208
Debts$0
Cash on Hand$2,304
End DateJune 30, 2011
Gary Johnson (R)
Raised$180,237
Spent$174,230
Debts$227,360
Cash on Hand$6,007
End DateJune 30, 2011
Buddy Roemer (R)
Raised$95,635
Spent$76,577
Debts$10,000
Cash on Hand$19,058
End DateJune 30, 2011
Thad McCotter (R)
Raised$33,055
Spent$54,636
Debts$0
Cash on Hand$478,780
End DateMarch 31, 2011

Monday, September 19, 2011

Presidential Nominating Rules

2012 Presidential Nominating Rules: A Comparison of the Two Parties 

by Rhodes Cook, The Crystal Ball


Democrats and Republicans are on the same page when it comes to the 2012 presidential primary and caucus calendar. For both parties, the sanctioned start of the delegate-selection season will be a month later than 2008, with Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina voting in February, and the rest of the country permitted to weigh in beginning the first Tuesday in March. The two parties have their differences on other facets of the rules, such as winner-take-all versus proportional representation, the awarding of bonus delegates to states and the role of “superdelegates.” Still, both parties have adopted rules for 2012 designed to discourage the long-running trend toward “front-loading,” characterized by a mad rush of states to a position near the start of the delegate-selection season.



Sources: “Delegate Selection Rules For the 2012 Democratic National Convention” (as adopted by the Democratic National Committee, August 20, 2010); “The Rules of the Republican Party” (as adopted by the 2008 Republican National Convention September 1, 2008, and amended by the Republican National Committee on August 6, 2010).

See also The Green Papers and Democratic Delegate Allocation and Republican Delegate Allocation

"I Voted for a Backbone": Poll Says Obama's Approval Rating Slipping

Support for Obama Slips; Unease on 2012 Candidates

President Obama’s support is eroding among elements of his base, and a yearlong effort to recapture the political center has failed to attract independent voters, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, leaving him vulnerable at a moment when pessimism over the country’s direction is greater than at any other time since he took office.

The president’s effort to seize the initiative on the economy was well received by the public, and clear majorities support crucial pieces of his new job-creation program. But despite Mr. Obama’s campaign to sell the plan to Congress and voters, more than half of those questioned said they feared the economy was already in or was headed for a double-dip recession, and nearly three-quarters of Americans think the country is on the wrong track.

Republicans appear more energized than Democrats at the outset of the 2012 presidential campaign, but have not coalesced around a candidate. Even as the party’s nominating contest seems to be narrowing to a two-man race between Mitt Romney and Gov. Rick Perry of Texas, a majority of their respective supporters say they have reservations about their candidate. Half of Republicans who plan to vote in a primary say they would like more choices.

A snapshot of the Republican Party, four months before the first primary ballots are cast, shows that voters are evenly divided between preferring a presidential nominee who can defeat Mr. Obama or one who aligns with them on most issues. A majority of voters who support the Tea Party movement place a higher priority on winning back the White House.

The Republican primary campaign is unfolding in a more conservative electorate than four years ago, with 7 in 10 Republican voters calling themselves conservative and one-quarter who say they are moderate.
The poll, which was conducted after Mr. Obama’s economic address to Congress last week, contains considerable warning signs for the president. The poll found a 12-point jump since late June, to 43 percent, in the number of Americans who say the economy is getting worse. And for the first time since taking office, his disapproval rating has reached 50 percent in the Times and CBS News polls.

“I don’t disapprove of Barack Obama as a person, but as a president he has disappointed me greatly,” said Ann Sheets, 69, a Democrat from Chattanooga, Tenn., speaking in a follow-up interview. Ms. Sheets added, “I’m realistic enough to know how difficult it is and I am not against compromise, but I voted for a backbone. You have to draw some lines in the sand, and I don’t think he has done that.”

The poll found a 43 percent approval rating for Mr. Obama. It is significantly higher than Jimmy Carter, who had an approval rating of 31 percent at a similar time in his presidency, according to the Times and CBS News poll, which showed Ronald Reagan with an approval of 46 percent and the elder George Bush at 70 percent.

The president’s support has fallen to its lowest levels across parts of the diverse coalition of voters who elected him, from women to suburbanites to college graduates. And a persistent effort over the past year to reclaim his appeal to independent voters has shown few signs of bearing fruit, with 59 percent of this critical electoral group voicing their disapproval.

While Mr. Obama has not yet succeeded in winning over independent voters, who comprise the most influential piece of the electorate, neither have Republicans. The field is largely unknown to independents, and few have a favorable opinion of any of the candidates.

As the Republican Party experiences something of a reinvention, with Tea Party activists often clashing with the party’s weakening establishment, the poll found an overall electorate that is not entirely in step with the campaign messages of the party’s candidates.

More than 8 in 10 Republicans voters would like to see the national health care law repealed, at least in part. About half say illegal immigrants should be deported, rather than offered a chance at citizenship or an opportunity to serve as guest workers.

Yet in stark contrast to the positions taken by some presidential candidates, three-quarters of Republicans say global warming exists — either as a result of human activity, natural patterns in the earth’s environment, or both. Nearly 6 in 10 favor allowing same-sex couples to either form civil unions or marry. And only one-third of Republicans support a ban on abortion.

A slim majority of Republican voters say it is important for a presidential candidate to share their religious beliefs. And more than one-third of Republican primary voters say that most people they know would not vote for a candidate who is Mormon.

Mr. Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, struggled during his presidential bid four years ago to explain his Mormon traditions to some voters. Mr. Perry speaks frequently to Republican audiences about his evangelical beliefs.

The poll was taken as Republicans hopefuls are drawing sharp distinctions with one another in a series of nationally televised debates.

A fight over Social Security has emerged as one of the early yet defining differences between Mr. Perry, who has called the program a “monstrous lie,” and Mr. Romney, who has called for maintaining the current system with some changes to shore up its long-term financial condition. The poll found that nearly three-quarters of Republicans said they thought Social Security and Medicare were worth their costs.

The crosscurrents across the Republican landscape show the promise and peril for the candidates. Nearly half of Republicans surveyed said they considered themselves supporters of the Tea Party, but that finding was tempered by two-thirds of Republicans who said a candidate’s identification with the Tea Party made no difference in their vote.

“Any Republican who gets the nomination, whether it’s my first choice or not, is going to be better than what we’ve got now,” said Allen Hulshizer, 77, a Republican and retired structural engineer from Glenside, Pa. “By the time you get down to the final selections, any one of the top contenders will certainly be better than Obama.”

The nationwide telephone poll was conducted from last Saturday through Thursday with 1,452 adults, of whom 1,356 were registered to vote. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points for both groups.

The poll found that most Americans are familiar with the American Jobs Act, the president’s $447 billion proposal to create jobs. Almost half of the public is confident the plan would create jobs and improve the economy. A substantial majority of Americans support the main proposals aimed at creating jobs, including tax cuts for small businesses, improvements in the nation’s infrastructure and payroll tax cuts for working Americans.

Yet despite their support, two-thirds of Americans from broad majorities across party lines are doubtful that Congressional Democrats and Republicans will be able to reach an agreement on a job-creation package despite near universal bipartisan support for compromise. The poll also found a historically low approval rating for Congress, with just 19 percent approving of Republicans, compared with 28 percent that approve of Democrats.

The poll had a few promising signs for Mr. Obama. Americans strongly support his position that creating jobs should be a higher priority than cutting spending. Democrats and independents agree on that view, while Republicans do not. And across party lines, Americans support his position that a deficit-reduction plan should include a mix of tax increases and spending cuts.

But the poll also found a dark mood on Mr. Obama’s handling of the economy, with 34 percent approving and 57 percent disapproving. His numbers on job creation are similarly bleak, with 40 percent approving of his performance and 53 percent disapproving. Two-thirds of the public say Mr. Obama has not made progress in fixing the economy, even though a majority of people concede the condition of the national economy is not something a president can do a lot about.

“I have incredible empathy for the spot he’s in. He walked into the huge mess left behind by George Bush,” said Barbara Cornell, 56, a Democrat and hospital chaplain from Shoreline, Wash. Ms. Cornell added, “I believe he is a good person, but there are all these issues and problems that aren’t being dealt with.” 

Allison Kopicki and Marina Stefan contributed reporting.

Thursday, September 15, 2011

The States That Do — And Don’t — Pick Presidents

Kyle Kondik, Political Analyst, U.Va. Center for Politics September 15th, 2011

The old cliché is that “As Ohio goes, so goes the nation,” although the inverse of that is also true: “As the nation goes, so goes Ohio.”

The Buckeye State, long recognized as the premier presidential bellwether, deserves its status. In the 28 presidential elections since 1900, Ohio has correctly picked the winner 26 times.

Ohio has company at the top though — it beats out another top presidential swing state, New Mexico, by only percentage points. The Land of Enchantment has incorrectly picked only two elections since 1900, but because it only became a state in 1912, it has only been right 23 of 25 times, and thus has a slightly lower batting average (92%) than Ohio (92.9%).

The other states with good records since 1900 — as in, they’ve voted with the winner of the Electoral College more than 85% of the time — are Nevada (25/28), Missouri (25/28) and Illinois (24/28).

Generally, the states with the worst records since 1900 are the states of the Deep South. This is no surprise — in the early 1900s, most southern states voted for Democratic losers before turning ruby Red Republican, while occasionally supporting third party candidates in the middle of the century. Of the 11 states of the old confederacy, only two — Peripheral South states Florida and Tennessee — have correctly picked more than 70% of the presidential winners since 1900.

Likewise, the District of Columbia, since being granted presidential electors in time for the 1964 campaign, has had the same record of picking presidential winners (5/12) as the party its voters have uniformly supported (the Democratic Party). Vermont and Maine’s relatively poor record stems from the fact that they were the only two states to never support Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt — it’s unthinkable today to think of those states as being solidly Republican, but they once were. (Alaska and Hawaii never had the chance to back FDR because they weren’t states when he was on the ballot.)

The majority of all states are in the solid 70%-85% range, generally supporting the presidential winners while occasionally going against the grain. The record of the states since 1900 is reflected in Map 1.

Map 1: How often states have sided with the winner in presidential elections since 1900

Note: Numbers on map indicate each state’s number of Electoral College votes.

Ohio’s misfires came in 1944, when it picked Republican Tom Dewey (whose running mate was Ohio Gov. John W. Bricker) over FDR, and in 1960, when it preferred Republican Richard Nixon over Democrat John F. Kennedy. “Of America’s 10 most populous states,” Nixon said at an Ohio event in 1981, “Ohio is the only one besides my home state of California in which I’ve never lost a national election, and I thank you for that.”

Ever since 1960 — for nearly half a century — Ohio, alone among its peers, has a perfect record in picking presidents.

New Mexico’s misfires are more recent: in 1976 it went for Republican Gerald Ford in his close loss to Democrat Jimmy Carter and in 2000 for Democrat Al Gore over Republican George W. Bush. The 2000 margin — only 366 votes — was closer in terms of raw votes than Florida (won by Bush by 537 votes).

But New Mexico’s sterling record might be in jeopardy because its growing Hispanic population could make it more Democratic and thus less likely to support narrowly-elected GOP presidents. In 2008, its electorate was 41% Hispanic according to exit polling, or more than quadruple that of the nation as a whole (9%). This assumes that Hispanics, who voted two to one for President Obama in 2008, remain a Democratic constituency, which is not at all certain.

Meanwhile, Ohio’s electorate in the 2008 election was only 4% Hispanic, which means Ohio might be less representative of the nation going forward if it continues to have a relatively small Hispanic population.

Illinois, trending Blue, and Missouri, trending Red, are probably past their best days as bellwether states.

Nevada — tied with the Show Me State as the third rated state on the list with a 25/28 record — might be the state to watch going forward. In 2008, its electorate was 69% white, 15% Hispanic, 10% black, 3% Asian and 3% other, which might generally be what the electorate looks like, racially, in the near future. And, had we started this survey exactly 100 years ago (the 1912 election) Nevada would have the best record at 24/25 elections, misfiring only in 1976.

For the time being though, and despite population loss that just reduced its number of electoral votes from 20 to 18, Ohio is going to be perhaps the most-watched swing state in 2012, as both parties will try to appeal to the state’s fickle voters. For nearly half a century the Buckeye State has been the Northern Star of presidential elections, guiding political watchers in the direction of winners. It remains the nation’s bellwether until its voters — uncharacteristically — decide to go against the national currents. At that point Nevada or New Mexico might take its crown.

Monday, September 12, 2011

Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty Endorses Mitt Romney

Tim Pawlenty surprised the political world today by endorsing his once rival for the Republican nomination, Mitt Romney.





The move is interesting because Pawlenty was a consistent and vociferous critic of Romney's health care plan and was the one who coined the phrase "Obamney Care." 




Some argue that Pawlenty's move could set himself up for a possible VP slot if Romney secures the Republican nomination. And as The New York Times is reporting, Pawlenty has about $500,000 in campaign debt that he could use help in retiring. 


Whatever the motive, this is the first sign that Rick Perry's momentum may be slowing. Romney's message in last week's Republican debate that he is actually more electable than Perry is a little more valid this evening, thanks to Pawlenty.

Obama Lays out Jobs Plan

Last week President Barack Obama laid out his much anticipated jobs speech in a joint session of Congress. The next morning, the White House put out an enhanced version of the speech, complete with graphs and charts, and accompanying PDF file of facts and figures. 

Read the White House fact sheet on the American Jobs Act